"What is a woman?" in the Supreme Court: Who will win?

This post is a part of a series that I am doing in the legal aspects and implications of the appeal in For Women Scotland v The Scottish Ministers that will be heard by the UK Supreme Court at the end of November 2024.

The central question to be decided in this case is whether guidance issued by the Scottish Government about the meaning of the word “woman” in the Equality Act 2010 (EqA) is lawful. That guidance states that a person with a full Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC) which confers upon them the acquired gender of female is a woman for the purposes of the Equality Act 2010. For Women Scotland have challenged the accuracy and therefore lawfulness of this guidance, claiming that the definition of woman in the Equality Act is tied to natal biological sex. In this post I’m going to do my best to make a prediction as to who will win and why.